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    Home Unlabelled EA Sports FIFA The Daily Squad Thread (AM Edition) -- July 12, 2020

    EA Sports FIFA The Daily Squad Thread (AM Edition) -- July 12, 2020

    July 11, 2020

    EA Sports FIFA The Daily Squad Thread (AM Edition) -- July 12, 2020

    The Daily Squad Thread (AM Edition) -- July 12, 2020

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 09:06 PM PDT

    This thread is for all posts related to squads, including...

    • FUT squad building

    • FUT Draft squads

    • Squad Building Challenge squads

    Do you need a squad built?

    Fill in the sample below and let others find or create a team that fits your purpose. Other questions for your squad building needs are also welcome.

    • Formation

    • Hybrid (Yes/No)

    • League/Nationality

    • Players you want in it (Optional)

    • Budget

    • Console

    FUTHEAD, FUTWIZ or FUTBIN links are strongly encouraged...

    Note: All Squad Threads, including Build Requests, Squad Reviews, and Requests For Critique outside of this thread will be removed without warning. If you are a squad builder interested in creating a feature ^ thread for a certain tournament, a specific formation, style of play, etc. -- message the moderators before posting.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    /r/FIFA: The IF Watch Thread (Saturday Edition)

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 04:07 AM PDT

    The TOTW highlights the best performances of the past week from international and club competition around the world.

    Who do you think is going to get a black card and join the Team of the Week?

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Fun fact: David Luiz hasn't had a performance based special card in three years

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 08:59 AM PDT

    UPDATE: Results of over 1800 prime icon packs (yes you read that right!)

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 02:09 PM PDT

    Hi all, thanks for the incredible engagement on the first post (link here: https://www.reddit.com/r/FIFA/comments/hoeetu/comment_all_your_prime_icon_pack_results_below/). With your help, we compiled the results of 1811 prime icon packs from 293 individuals.

    A spreadsheet with the results, ranked by the number of times each prime icon was packed, can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tTkeB5ij57S5hlYH0UF5JJoMvk0M6qNIdEUAqVEt9R0/edit?usp=sharing

    Based on these results, I wanted to do some brief analysis to see what we could learn from these data. I tried to use both statistical terminology and give an explanation that is easier to read. If this is too long to read, you can also skip to the conclusion at the end of each section.

    ​

    1. Overall trends in data

    Below is a histogram displaying with the count frequency that each of the 90 prime icons was packed out of 1811 packs.

    https://preview.redd.it/48sgo9k9laa51.png?width=315&format=png&auto=webp&s=435c86af550f6d2c2715eda8a842b7d442212c88

    As you might expect, the distribution appears to display left skew with a longer left tail; ie, many icons are frequently packed, and only a few icons (the top tier ones) are rarely packed.

    The most packed icons were Essien and Larsson, both packed 36 times out of 1811, or 1.99% each. The least packed icon (other than Van Basten, who is out of packs), is Garrincha, who was only packed 2 times out of 1811, or 0.11%.

    With respect to sample size, all icons except Vieira, Ronaldo, Cruyff, Pele, Zidane, Gullit, Maradona, Maldini, Best, Ronaldinho, Eusebio, Carlos Alberto, and Garrincha, were packed at least 10 times. The combined probability of packing any of these 13 "top tier" icons from a pack was 3.59% ± 0.81% (95% confidence interval).

    An important caveat with respect to estimating the probability of packing any individual "top tier" icon is that since each top tier icon was packed only a few times, conventional statistics like confidence interval estimation for themselves for population proportion might not hold. Instead, other exact methods might need to be applied (if you're interested in learning more, you can look up assumptions regarding the Central Limit Theorem for binomial populations; specifically, you generally need 5 successes and 5 failures to do this type of estimation).

    Conclusion: Many icons have a high probability of being packed, while only a few "top tier" icons have a low probability of being packed.

    ​

    2. Pack odds based on rating

    I've seen some people state their belief that all players of a same rating have equal probability of being packed (ie from the pack odds that are stated). While this may seem intuitively improbable, this data makes it clear that this is likely not the case.

    To be specific, Vieira and Desailly are both rated 91. However, Vieira was packed only 9 times out of 1811, while Desailly was packed 34 times. This difference certainly seems hard to explain just by chance, but we can be more concrete than that. Specifically, the p value for this 2-tailed 2 proportion z-test is approximately 0.0001. This basically means that if Vieira and Desailly did have the exact same chance of being packed, the probability that we would observe such a big difference between the number of times each of them was packed is around 1 in 10000 (typically people likely to conclude that there's a significant difference if this chance is less than 1 in 20).

    This is unlikely enough that we can conclude that Vieira and Desailly likely have different pack odds, which suggests that pack odds are not entirely just determined by rating (might seem obvious, but some people still believe this).

    Conclusion: It is extremely unlikely that pack odds are determined solely by rating of a card.

    3. Pack odds based on market value

    Some people also believe that pack odds are determined solely by market price of a card; higher valued cards on the market are always less likely to be packed, and lower valued cards are always more likely to be packed. If this were true, you'd expect two similarly priced cards on the market to have around the same chance of being packed.

    To be specific, Puyol is priced at ~250k on PS4, ~230k on Xbox, ~299k on PC. Zambrotta is priced at ~267k on PS4, ~275k on Xbox, ~475k on PC. However, Puyol was packed 14 times, while Zambrotta was packed 27 times. Again, we perform a 2-tailed 2 proportion z-test to see if this difference in number of times they were packed might truly be due to chance, and we find a p value of 0.0113. If Puyol and Zambrotta had the exact same chance of being packed, then the probability that we would see a difference this big due to chance alone is around 1 in 100.

    Thus, it is unlikely that they had the same chance of being packed. This evidence suggests that pack odds are not likely determined just by market value alone. In my opinion, this result, combined with other evidence (like the Sancho guaranteed Ultimate TOTS pack debacle), argues that pack odds are not just determined by market value, but are instead a fixed probability distribution that game developers hard code into the packs. I know many people might have already known this for a while, I just thought it was more proof.

    Conclusion: It is unlikely that these pack odds are a function of market value alone.

    4. Do different accounts have different pack odds?

    This was probably the most interesting question I wanted to try to answer, because I think it's something people have been wondering for a while, without much conclusive non-anecdotal evidence. There are theories that that different accounts might have different probability distributions on available players; for example, new or inactive accounts might get "boosted" pack odds.

    Spoiler: I couldn't get a clear answer from this in my opinion, but I'm curious to hear what anyone else thinks or how they would go about this. I had a few ideas for how to try to get at this, here are some findings that I thought were mildly interesting.

    First, I wanted to see if some people got many more of the previously mentioned 13 "top tier" icons than might be expected by chance. 6 individuals got 2 or more of the "top tier" icons.

    • Gullit and Vieira in 26 packs
    • Gullit and Vieira in 7 packs
    • Pele and Ronaldo in 9 packs
    • Maradona and Cruyff in 47 packs
    • Ronaldinho, Maradona, Vieira in 12 packs
    • Pele, Eusebio, Vieira in 15 packs

    In total, these individuals packed 14 "top tier" icons in 116 packs; 12% of their icons were "top tier" prime icons, compared to the sample average of 3.6% or the average of all other players of 3.0%.

    —— **EDIT: Previously I said "The p value for a one proportion z-test, comparing the possibly boosted odds of these individuals to the general odds of 3.59% of packing a "top tier" prime icon, was less than 0.0001. This suggests that these individuals might not have had the same pack odds as the general population, but to be clear, I'm not confident in these results or if this was the best way to go about it."

    However, upon feedback from u/Meanonsunday, I agree that this part isn't the best way to do hypothesis testing because it just looks at a top sample. Instead ideal would be a simulation or Poisson distribution calculation given the probability of a top tier icon, to calculate how many you'd expect to observe assuming some number of independently opened packs. However this is difficult in practice because everyone opened different numbers of packs and we would need a more controlled setting for this. As a result, I would like to modify my original statement, I don't think the hypothesis testing is very accurate. Instead, perhaps it is more informative to just say that the probability of getting 3 top tier icons from 12 packs is around 7E-3, very low, so that player got lucky! Again, would just like to clarify that this method of data collection may not be the best way for hypothesis testing of different players pack odds with different numbers of packs opened.

    End EDIT*** ——

    There's also the issue of self-reporting bias and importantly, the fact that some of these players had low pack counts and stopped early after a few lucky packs (same issue as earlier with Central Limit Theorem assumptions, with not having enough data from these accounts).

    Another idea I had was to look at the duplicates people got, as some sort of indication that the distributions were different. The idea would be that if there were more overall duplicates than expected, then the pack odds might vary from person to person. However, I couldn't really uncover anything useful to this end.

    One anecdote that might be of interest, if nothing else, is that one (un)lucky person did 7 packs, of which 4(!) were Okocha. Based on these data collected so far, the probability of getting 4 Okocha's within 7 packs is roughly 0.0138^4 * (1-0.0138)^3 * (7 choose 4) = 0.0000012, or 1 in 1000000. The probability of getting 4 of the exact same icon (any icon) within 7 packs was around 0.000088, or around 1 in 10000. Anyhow, without more packs from each individual account, I don't believe that this is particularly conclusive evidence that different people have different pack probabilities.

    Conclusion: Unclear if different accounts have different pack probabilities; need more data from each "lucky" or "unlucky" account to make strong statements.

    I hope this was interesting in some way, even if it's just to see what the chances are that you get your favorite icon in your next pack. Feel free to let me know if you have any feedback or see any issues you'd like me to fix :)

    submitted by /u/telomerase_21
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    Summer Heat Lenglet Stats. Traits & Requirements

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 10:04 AM PDT

    Had a crazy warm up today.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 06:09 PM PDT

    What could have and should have been

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 10:02 AM PDT

    got bored made this, hope its not too bad.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 02:00 PM PDT

    Our Lord And Saviour Should Return

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 12:20 PM PDT

    All the Summer Heat cards from the "Popular" Nations (terrible paint job)

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 01:21 AM PDT

    An Icon I'd love to see in FUT21.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 04:11 AM PDT

    SH Ibra is probably the weirdest player I have used in this game.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 06:19 AM PDT

    I sub him on and he stumbles around like a donkey for 30 minutes but somehow he stumbles his way to 2 goals and an assist.

    submitted by /u/Sean8162
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    Full XI of Potential Summer Heat cards from a neglected nation during this promo - Italy

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 08:19 AM PDT

    I know this has been made before, but Lil' Chili really deserves a special card

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 06:33 AM PDT

    Best of Release 2 Party Bag

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 10:00 AM PDT

    Hold on, what?

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 07:12 PM PDT

    The Level 15/30 Reward for the upcoming season should be a 3x Prime Icon pack and 3x Prime Moments Icon pack

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 06:59 PM PDT

    Title is self-explanatory, but I think that since we're going to be in Mid-July we should have more fun in this game. The last season contained 1-2 usable cards (Matuidi+Draxler) and the rest were fodder. I literally never played 1 game with the Gil Dias that I chose.

    With this season likely being the last until FIFA 21, EA should let us be able to play with players that many cannot afford. Many of us have Past and Present teams and these rewards would go a long way to possibly helping us achieve these teams.

    If you are willing to get to Level 30 in what will most likely be early September, a 3x Prime Icon Moment pack should be your reward.

    Just my thoughts, lmk who you think will be this upcoming season's rewards.

    submitted by /u/dc41500
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    There have been 7 Summer heat votes so far, and every time the highest rated loan card has won.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 12:11 PM PDT

    Just goes on to show how flawed EA's voting system is..what's the harm in giving a loan player pick with each card's possible boosted version? They are adding the upgraded versions of all 3 nominees to the database anyways..so it's not like that they would have to create any extra cards.

    submitted by /u/Hm2801
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    Are we even ready for this? Fifa 21 Ben Yedder

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 02:06 AM PDT

    Summer heat Zaniolo. We haven't had an Italian Summer Heat yet so this would be a good card to have.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 03:09 PM PDT

    Summer Heat Dembele is insanely fun to use.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 07:21 PM PDT

    EA are complicit in the grooming of children to become gambling addicts. Another (much needed) article against loot boxes

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 01:47 AM PDT

    Posting this to bring further attention to a massive issue.

    Article here: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/jul/11/my-son-would-be-shaking-trying-not-to-go-online-how-the-gambling-industry-got-its-claws-into-kids

    Most of us are aware that EA are a company with despicable morals, and no game underlines this more than FIFA. The links with gambling behaviours and loot boxes are clear, and the results can be extremely damaging. Here is a quote from the article:

    "Liz Ritchie is a retired NHS consultant psychotherapist. "Children are being groomed to be gamblers," she says. "I do believe there will be a Jimmy Savile moment, and people will suddenly say, 'What on earth were we doing?' When your child dies, that curtain is ripped aside for you. We want to warn other parents because nobody warned us."

    There isn't a week that goes by without another post from a member of the community sadly detailing their addiction to pack opening and its effects on their wellbeing. How can EA read these posts and continue flogging their gambling-riddled product to kids? It's our collective duty to create this change and bring more attention to this huge issue. Without our intervention, EA will continue to cause huge negative impacts on susceptible kids.

    submitted by /u/taplino
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    I gave away 23 wins this WL, some fun facts

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 12:15 PM PDT

    Was 5-2 and after some BS i decided this is not worth the stress anymore so i gave away all the games remaining, fun facts:

    • 3/23 players messaged me and thanked for the win
    • After the 15th RQ every time i quitted, the game would automatically disconnect me from EA servers, this happened until the last game
    • 16/23 celebrated my OG
    • 6/16 shushed/dabbed
    • 8/23 watched all the replays
    • I messaged my last 3 opponents and asked for their records, their responses were: 15-7 ; 10-5 ; 13-9 (keep in mind that my elo was +3 when i started this)

    I'm kinda relieved i can't play WL unless i grind the hell of DR again. Now i'm going to spend my 800k coins remaining on draft/gold packs to assure i'm not using the webapp anymore.

    submitted by /u/frnt10
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    Accurate simulation of Arsenal Defense

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 09:38 AM PDT

    Imagine how easily most of the new *pointless* obj cards would be done if...

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 05:26 PM PDT

    EA JUST ADDED FUT CHAMPS TO THE LIST along with SB and rivals. Things like assists with 4* skillers and 15 goals with French players etc etc. would be done in a breeze lol. Plus countless other objs would've been much easier and less annoying.

    submitted by /u/mattyfatkock719
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    We all know 45th and 90th minute goals are a thing. But I've been gobsmacked with the amount of kick off goals.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2020 08:35 PM PDT

    And the fact is it feels SO forceful. Be it tackling or trying to pass the ball, or clearing the ball. They actually had the audacity to bring it back to increase RNG.

    submitted by /u/_titleofyoursextape_
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