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    EA Sports FIFA The r/FIFA Daily Discussion Thread -- May 07, 2021

    May 07, 2021

    EA Sports FIFA The r/FIFA Daily Discussion Thread -- May 07, 2021

    The r/FIFA Daily Discussion Thread -- May 07, 2021

    Posted: 07 May 2021 04:00 AM PDT

    This thread is the place to go for the posts that crop up in /new that don't necessarily need a full thread for discussion, which include but are not limited to:

    • Subjective questions (such as "Who is better, Player X or Player Y?" or "Which Chemstyle is best on PM R9?")
    • Investment / Trading / Market posts
    • Sharing Squads / Asking for Suggestions
    • Other general gameplay discussion

    • Meta posts & Quick Questions

      Join the conversation over on r/FIFA's Official Discord! https://discord.gg/NKUG6X8BEq

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Most British Fifa argument ever I had in FIFA 18

    Posted: 07 May 2021 07:14 AM PDT

    Full La Liga TOTS Revealed...

    Posted: 07 May 2021 09:45 AM PDT

    New Loading Screen - Icon Swaps 3 from Monday!

    Posted: 07 May 2021 01:24 PM PDT

    I joined the club of people battered by Neymar

    Posted: 07 May 2021 11:24 AM PDT

    La Liga TOTS content is already way better than PL TOTS content

    Posted: 07 May 2021 10:44 AM PDT

    At the first day of La Liga Tots we already got way better SBC content than the whole PL tots week with Marcelo flashback alone. Even with his price he is still better content

    submitted by /u/IXerno
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    EA have finally tweaked the daily objectives

    Posted: 07 May 2021 10:36 AM PDT

    TOTS Moments William Carvalho objectives

    Posted: 07 May 2021 10:02 AM PDT

    Creampuff: meet your new cousin, Springpuff. Meow.

    Posted: 07 May 2021 10:18 AM PDT

    I just downloaded fifa, is this just normal???

    Posted: 06 May 2021 10:59 PM PDT

    After a personal experience circa 25 minutes ago let me just say be nice this weekend league.

    Posted: 07 May 2021 11:39 AM PDT

    We all know this game can get the better of us, make us angry etc. But whatever you do, moan to your friends, let out your anger in whatever way possible that doesn't affect others. I just lost a very close game in draft which i felt unlucky not to have won, i was invited to a party by the person who beat me, not to say good game or anything along those lines, but to abuse me, call me a fat c***, call me worthless and useless etc. Amongst a tirade of other abusive things, i messaged him to say just think about what your saying. You never know who is on the other side of your screen, what they are going through or what they have experienced in life. Just be kind and do the right thing, i am not asking us all to be positive and happy, just don't abuse people, happy weekend leaguing.

    submitted by /u/biffman98
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    TOTS Isak objectives

    Posted: 07 May 2021 10:01 AM PDT

    RTTF Mount Upgrade

    Posted: 07 May 2021 07:19 PM PDT

    I'm at a point where I'm not sure if I have any influence on the game anymore.

    Posted: 07 May 2021 04:35 PM PDT

    Let me preface this by saying I've played a lot this year. Div 1 normally Gold 1-2. Did 80% of all WL this Fifa. I know there will be people telling me to just stop playing and yes that is a solution, but I love football and the game was actually good in the beginning and has only been terrible for about 2 months for me.

    So I'm currently at 6-3. What I've noticed more and more over the last weeks that whether I lose or win seems to be less and less dependent on me. One game my players make runs, are vey responsive, passes actually connect etc. and the ones I lose I can't get the ball off my opponent, the same easy passes go absolutely nowhere and every first touch is terrible.

    The thing is, I think I can tell if who I'm playing against is a good player or not. If he switches his players well, sends them on runs, or just catches me off guard all the time. That's not what's happening in most of my losses tho and it makes me feel very powerless. Same goes for wins, you just know when the game is going in your favor and it makes it less of an achievement for me.

    I wish we could have fair, consistent gameplay one day, but I think EA are benefitting from the frustration wat too much so it's probably never going to happen. All this doesn't mean I'm an amazing player who should get Elite every week, or at all. But the constant gameplay issues hold you back so much, I think many people feel that way.

    submitted by /u/jellyfishfrgg
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    FUT idea: let us try out a new fut card in a practice arena

    Posted: 07 May 2021 12:12 PM PDT

    Say you want a new card to buy or craft and there isn't a loan option, how about a thing in fut where we can try before we buy in an arena with the exact player you are looking to buy.

    So say for example I wanted to try a 92 rated promo card, I try that exact card in the arena, not just their say 85 gold card.

    It might seem unnecessary to some , but I've had it on occasions where I've gone of a review and bought a player, found out I didn't like them after a while, then I lose some ea tax selling him back.

    Would also like this to practice freekicks also with players you can't in normal skill games outside of fut.

    submitted by /u/Didledee
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    Any objective that requires Rivals should be obtainable by playing FUT Champs.

    Posted: 07 May 2021 03:34 PM PDT

    Seriously, why is this not a thing? Playing Champs takes up your Rivals games for points yet you can't get any of the Rivals objectives while playing them.

    If there's a mode that is considered above the one that is required for objectives, you should be able to do them by playing the "more difficult" mode.

    We frequently get "Squad Battles (or Rivals)" objectives, so why not "Rivals (or FUT Champions)"

    submitted by /u/NoMenosControl
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    [Theory] FIFA Pack Probability Algorithm

    Posted: 07 May 2021 09:27 PM PDT

    [Warning: long post with numbers & stuff]

    As I was opening up my red picks and guaranteed Prem TOTS pack, seeing the inevitable trifecta of Soucek, Gundogan, and Ederson walk out, I decided it was finally time to put pen to paper on a mathematical proposal quantifying WHY we all consistently have our expectations dashed from our pack addiction.

    The Probability Algorithm

    Many times on the sub we've speculated that pack weights are inversely proportional to player prices. I don't think I've ever seen it definitively proven or confirmed before, but it feels intuitive at this point. The more expensive the player, the lower % chance of packing. That's why at the start of the year, players like 83 Mendy was so much more rare than 83 Tadic.

    Based on this simple insight, I have reverse engineered a proposal for how EA calculates base probabilities for every player in every pack they release (of which there are X000s of permutations). Here is the formula:

    Prob_player_i = SUM[i = 1 to n | Player_Value_i] / (Player_Value_i * SUM[i= 1 to n | SUM [i = 1 to n | Player_Value_i] / Player_Value_i])

    OK so that's really hard to read. In English, here's the way to compute a player probability in a pack:

    1. Determine all of the players that could be packed in that pack, based on the rules of the pack. Set this total number to equal "n".
    2. For each player, determine the current market value of the player. This is determined by the lowest BIN price of that player (any platform). Set this to Player_Value_i.
    3. Calculate the sum of all player values in the pack. This is SUM[i = 1 to n | Player_Value_i], or more simply "Total Player Value".
    4. Calculate a "Price Weight" for each player. This is calculated as the Total Player Value divided by the Player_Value_i for each player. This is what creates the inverse relationship between price and probability.
    5. Finally, compute the probability of the player by taking this "Price Weight" divided by the sum of all player "Price Weights", or the "Total Price Weights".

    Here's what that looks like for Premier League TOTS (XBOX, as of 7.45pm PST on 5/7):

    Player Lowest BIN (Xbox) Price Weight Probability
    Ederson 105,000 132.4 16.6%
    Soucek 64,500 215.5 27.0%
    Gundogan 99,000 140.4 17.6%
    Vardy 332,000 41.9 5.2%
    Mount 300,000 46.3 5.8%
    Fofana 285,000 48.8 6.1%
    Ruben Dias 440,000 31.6 4.0%
    Shaw 290,000 47.9 6.0%
    Cancelo 500,000 27.8 3.5%
    Kane 463,000 30.0 3.8%
    De Bruyne 1,200,000 11.6 1.4%
    Salah 1,390,000 10.0 1.3%
    Son 2,190,000 6.3 0.8%
    Fernandes 2,700,000 5.1 0.6%
    Rashford 3,540,000 3.9 0.5%
    Total 13,898,500 799.5 100.0%

    Looking at these particular player prices, it's clear that there are 3 "Tiers" of player value:

    • B-Tier - <100K
    • A-Tier - 250-500K
    • S-Tier - 1M+

    Using the probabilities, here's the percentage chance that the Guaranteed Prem TOTS pack would give you a player from each Tier:

    Tier Players Probability
    B-Tier Ederson, Soucek, Gundogan 61.1%
    A-Tier Vardy, Mount, Fofana, Ruben Dias, Shaw, Cancelo, Kane 34.3%
    S-Tier De Bruyne, Salah, Son, Fernandes, Rashford 4.6%

    If you ask me, this looks pretty darn on point with my own anecdotal experience plus everything I read on here and FUTBIN. I would be really interested to aggregate how people's pulls turned out to compare; maybe can do that for a future TOTS pack. Note that I'm not suggesting Tiers are used in any way in the algorithm; it just looked interesting to group them this way.

    Why This Might be True

    This is an oversimplified theory, of course, reverse engineered based on intuition. However, I think there's a number of reasons why this might be close to how it actually works.

    1. Simple. Simplicity is always preferred to more complex solutions, especially when it comes to algorithms. This approach only requires two datasets - the # of players and the market value of each player - to come up with probabilities. The first one EA sets, the second one the market sets for EA. It's very little work for them.
    2. Self-Regulating. This algorithm regulates itself based on live market prices. One player shoots up beyond 1M coins? The probability of packing that player drops hard. This keeps the power curve regulated, making sure that packs weights never deviate from how people actually value players.
    3. Flexible. It works for any set of players and any pack rules. If EA wants to release a fancy new pack type, they don't need to change anything to compute the probabilities.
    4. Debunks "EA is Evil". I may be naive, but I don't think EA is evil and nefarious to its core. I think it is silly to think they maliciously manipulate odds on packs with extreme precision, especially when a system like this does it for them with zero legal risk. In summary - people don't often pack highly valuable players simply because people value those players highly. And vice versa.

    Caveats & Challenges

    Few thoughts on where this could get complicated:

    1. Initial Weights. The one place the theory breaks down a bit is the initial weights. What does EA do when first releasing a pack with new players, when there are no prices? At first I was worried about this, but then realized that the beauty of the system is that they don't HAVE to be very precise at this. They could naively set player weights to be equal, or based on simple card rating, and then release to market. By updating player probs at a high frequency (e.g. once per minute) for the first hour, the market will quickly get the probs to a better place. After that, probs can be updated much slower (e.g. once an hour). In reality, they have to set price ranges anyways by making an estimation of their actual market price, but it's clear that they are often bad at this. This algorithm corrects for any of those mistakes.
    2. Tweaks. Given EA makes $X00Ms of profit on FUT, they almost certainly have an entire team working on analyzing pack probabilities to optimize pack purchases. They have tons of incentive to tweak the simple price-based approach to maximize profit. The good news it would be pretty easy to adjust this approach to make it easier / harder to get better players. For example, I assumed a linear relationship between price and prob - that could easily be transformed to a non-linear relationship.

    Parting Thoughts

    Hope you all found this interesting - if you have any thoughts / ideas / tweaks, let me know! I'd be curious to hear what enhancements could be made to this theory, or requests for new theories. As per why I am qualified to right about this? I'm really not, beyond being a FIFA player for 20+ years with a weird addiction to math :)

    submitted by /u/mxspear
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    Flashback Marcelo SBC

    Posted: 07 May 2021 10:05 AM PDT

    Playing too many games on a Friday is never a good idea

    Posted: 07 May 2021 04:43 PM PDT

    Was 9-0 all going well, then play two pro's in a row, namely FCT Brent and Sean Flossy (both have Futbin pro pages). Lost both games 7-2. You only realise the true extent to how broken this game is after playing a pro. The abuse of the same skill moves that you can try and defend all you want but to no avail. Credit to them though the skill level is still so impressive. I'm usually Elite 3 and 2200 SR and these guys made me feel like a Bronze 2 div 7 player. Unbelievable Geoff

    submitted by /u/niallw1997
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    Icon Swaps 2 Ending

    Posted: 07 May 2021 07:28 AM PDT

    Remember, if you have any tokens left, you have around 2.5 hours to claim them before they become useless. I'm sure I read a post on here after Swaps 1 ended from someone who didn't notice the SBCs disappeared.

    submitted by /u/HoppityVoosh
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    I played aj Tracey in division rivals and won

    Posted: 07 May 2021 09:21 AM PDT

    I just played against TOTS Varane

    Posted: 07 May 2021 04:36 PM PDT

    And I rubberbanded for the first time in my life in a WL mode.
    I am gold1/elite player and I rarely get frustrated while playing FIFA but this card shouldn't exist. I always get minimum 5 shots/per match but I couldn't do a single one in 70 min of playing. He was always there intercepting, violating my players and destroying every attack.
    I tried all my formations, even constant pressure but even there no result.
    I tried to spam through balls on Neres. I played Diatta as ST. He managed to catch both of them even if they were through on goal.
    Then I tried long range shots with Moments Dybala. Autoblock.
    I don't know if I just had a bad match or bad connection. But I know my opponent wasn't great at defending, only with Varane for some reason.
    We are talking about a 86 gold defender who can be found in 2M-squads. We are taking about a 91 rated RTTF card who is used literally by pro players. And now a 95 rated cheat code who makes it impossible to score a goal.
    I hope I will never face him again.

    submitted by /u/zemiiii
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    TOTS Ederson has been shocking. Is it just me?

    Posted: 07 May 2021 03:15 PM PDT

    Does anyone else feel the ball roll is ridiculously overpowered to evade a tackle?

    Posted: 07 May 2021 01:03 PM PDT

    I've never seen a striker and cb having a running battle for the then striker to just perform a ball roll while sprinting and be free.

    Even when you're playing against someone rubber banding the controller it can be so hard to get the ball from the constant ball roll

    submitted by /u/andyh11
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    RTTF Pogba upgrade

    Posted: 07 May 2021 07:00 PM PDT

    RTTF Cancelo Upgraded in game

    Posted: 07 May 2021 06:54 PM PDT
    Read more
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