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    EA Sports FIFA The r/FIFA Daily Discussion Thread -- January 25, 2021

    January 25, 2021

    EA Sports FIFA The r/FIFA Daily Discussion Thread -- January 25, 2021

    The r/FIFA Daily Discussion Thread -- January 25, 2021

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 04:00 AM PST

    This thread is the place to go for the posts that crop up in /new that don't necessarily need a full thread for discussion, which include but are not limited to:

    • Subjective questions (such as "Who is better, Player X or Player Y?" or "Which Chemstyle is best on PM R9?")
    • Investment / Trading / Market posts
    • Sharing Squads / Asking for Suggestions
    • Other general gameplay discussion
    • Meta posts & Quick Questions
    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Twitch Prime Gaming Pack Megathread

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 09:16 AM PST

    Numbers Don't Lie: Some Stats Behind FIFA 21's Facts and Myths

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 08:51 AM PST

    Hey guys.

    You all might have seen me popping into a few threads recently with some stat-based rambling on certain points. I've also the author of the Tinfoil Hat Survey and the Toxic Behavior Survey (keep an eye out for the Gameplay Style Survey, that's next.) I'm a pretty shit player – have been Gold 3 pretty much since they were playing with leather balls in cow pastures – but I do like getting stuck into the stats behind things… so I started keeping an absurdly detailed WL tracking spreadsheet last season that provides quite a lot of info. Figured I'd put some of the interesting stuff all down in one post.

       

    Q: How much more offensive is FIFA 21 than FIFA 20?

    A: Pretty notably. Before I go further, I should mention that the sample size for FIFA 20 is 675 matches and so far for FIFA 21 it's 358 matches. All WL at a mostly Gold 3 level.

    Game Goals/90 Shots/90 SOT/90
    FIFA 20 4.13 15.9 11.0
    FIFA 21 4.90 (+18.6%) 17.1 (+7.5%) 12.8 (+16.3%)

    One of those percentages is not like the others. The reason for that – shot accuracy is up significantly in 21 vs 20. I define shot accuracy simply as (SOT / Shots); it was 69.1% in 20, and it's 74.8% this year. I'm not quite sure what the reason for that is, especially considering blocked shots is such a significant gripe about this year's game. The data suggests maybe it isn't, but I'm not 100% sure.

       

    Q: Is it better to play at home as opposed to away?

    A: Probably not. I only added this to my tracking this year, but in my 358 matches I've been at home 194 times and on the road 164 times. I'm 101-93 at home and 81-83 on the road. Before you say "hey your home record's better!" – I win 50.8% of my games and 52% of my home games. My home record's only 2.5 games better than my overall record in a 194 game sample – far from anything statistically significant.

    There is, however, a fairly sizable disparity in how frequently I'm at home vs. on the road. I play on the US east coast between 9pm-2am local time on a wired connection, for what it's worth.

       

    Q: Is it easier to play later in the weekend?

    A: Unsurprisingly yes. I suck for the most part and am 69-87 on Fridays, 81-73 on Saturdays, and 32-16 on Sundays.

       

    Q: Tell me what you've learned about finishing.

    A: Sure. First of all, it's REMARKABLY consistent in the mid-to-high 30s outside of your usual game-to-game and WL-to-WL variance. Another chart for you:

    Game SOT (Mine / Opp) My SOT Scored % Opp SOT Scored %
    FIFA 20 3,537 / 3,958 38.9% 36.4%
    FIFA 21 2,227 / 2,396 38.8% 37.2%

    Like I said, it bounces around a bit from weekend to weekend. The lowest I've ever seen in a weekend is 28.9%, and the highest is 45.6%. Anything lower than 33% and you feel like it's one of those WLs where absolutely nothing is going in, and anything above 41-42 or so and you feel like 1970s Brazil.

    Another consistent stat across all 1,033 matches – for both me and my opponents, it's 46-48% finishing in wins and 25-27% finishing in losses. Of all the skills you can work on and cards you can buy in FIFA, by far the most important is sticking the round thing in the rectangular thing when you have the chance to do so. I mean, duh, but worth mentioning.

    Another point here - GKs simply don't matter as long as they're WL standard. I've used a ton of different GKs across these 1,033 matches and there isn't a single one that has a significant and consistent effect on how many shots get saved. Height also isn't all that relevant either. Get an 87+ OVR GK that chems your CBs and don't worry about the rest.

       

    Q: I hit the post way more than my opponent and it really sucks.

    A: Yes, it sucks, and no, you probably don't. I've hit the post 68 times this year and my opponents have rattled the woodwork 57 times. Note that's shots that bounce out. I define shots that hit the post and go in as shots on target.

       

    Q: How often are people using Formation X? How about Formation Y?

    A: The narrow 4231 remains king, even this year. I check my opponent's formation at HT of every WL match to collect this data. I made a post about this in another thread, but here's the data with FIFA 20 frequency data included for comparison:

    Form Freq % in FIFA 21 % in FIFA 20
    4231 N 74 20.7 27.1
    442 55 15.4 8.8
    433 ATT 40 11.2 9.8
    442 DEF 28 7.8 3.1
    41212 N 20 5.6 10.1
    4222 17 4.7 4.8
    4231 W 16 4.5 4.5
    433 DEF 12 3.4 4.3
    4411 12 3.4 4.2
    4321 12 3.4 2.8
    41212 W 11 3.1 5.5
    433 9 2.5 2.4
    352 5 1.3 1.3

    If you have questions about the more obscure formations, drop a comment (AND LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE HURRRR). But if you don't see them above, I see them pretty rarely.

       

    Q: r/FIFA loves to woof about 45' and 90' goals. What say you on that, professor?

    A: It's a thing, but barely. Here's the distribution of the time all 1,763 goals in my FIFA 21 WL matches: Goal Distribution Chart

    Now HOLD ON before you conspiracy theorists feel the rush of blood to your down belows. Two things to note here:

    • I define any goal scored in first half stoppage time as being scored on 45'. This is because I don't want to foul up the data for the start of the second half.
    • I've gone to extra time 11.4% of the time this year. In this chart, I'm controlling for that in 91'-122' timeframe otherwise there would be far fewer goals on that side of the chart. We're looking for rate stats here, not raw goal totals.

    First off - it's all but impossible to score in the first two minutes of halves. TWO of the 1,763 goals show up in minutes 1, 2, 46, and 47.

    Now for the 45/90/105/120 thing. If you halve the 54 goals scored on 45' in this chart – which you should, because it's all goals scored from 44:00 until the first half whistle blows, which is usually 46:00 or just thereafter – it drops the rate stat to 27. That 27 would be tied for the most frequently scored-in minute – but it's both 44:00 and first half stoppage time. The random distribution elsewhere says there's probably A LITTLE something to this. We're looking at two consecutive high-scoring minutes on 45 and 45+1, another high-scoring minute on 91-92, then again on 105 and 120? It's there. It's not a holy-shit-pull-the-fire-alarm revelation, but even for an ardent anti-FIFA-bullshit person like me – I think it's a tiny bit there.

       

    Q: EA casts a nasty magic spell on me when I go up 2-0 or 3-0 and they make me lose every time. Is 2-0 really a dangerous lead?

    A: Only if you aren't good at holding leads. I barked about this in a thread last night and said...

    • I've gone 2-0 up 71 times. I'm 65-6 in those matches.
    • I've gone 2-0 down 101 times. I'm 10-91 in those matches.
    • I've gone 3-0 up 48 times and have never lost.
    • I've gone 3-0 down 72 times and have won only one once, and it was on pens.

    If you go up 2 and you don't change tactics to slow it down a bit, be a little more defensive, and look for counters - that's your own fault. By r/fifa standards I am shit at this game and I've only lost 6 times after going up 2-0.

    Combined - both me and my opponents, once one of us goes up 2-0 - the other guy only comes back to win 9.3% of the time.

       

    Q: How important is it to score first?

    A: Important, yes, but even more than you might think. This was another data point I added to my tracking this year. In 358 games, I've scored first in 177 and my opponent's scored first in 180. I'm 131-46 when I score first and 51-129 when I don't (there's a 120' 0-0 in there for you eagle eyed readers.) Says that for a G3 pleb like me, the first goalscorer wins 73% of the time. This coupled with the 2-0 / 3-0 data above – there's something to be said for going for the throat early in a match.

       

    Q: What's the story with the WL elo / "Form" / matchmaking system?

    A: It works. In all my matches, my win rate drops as my Form goes up and it rises as my Form goes down, and the progression is almost linear:

    • In 21 my win % goes 83 – 62 – 70 – 55 – 41 – 37 – 24 as my Form goes from -4 to +2.
    • In 20 my win % goes 81 – 69 – 64 – 59 – 52 – 44 – 31 – 31 – 25 as my Form goes from -3 to +5.

    I'm all but certain the Form system is active during your first five placement matches, but don't have quite the amount of data as I'd like to be 100% sure.

    One thing I do think is a little suspect – there are a TON of streaks in WL. This is also something a lot of you have said you experience – you'll often times win 3 or 4 in a row, even as a G2/G3 player. 55% of all my weekends have at least one four-match winning or losing streak, which seems like a lot for a player who very reliably wins 51% of his matches. Yes, I know the Form system plays a role in this – but I'm not talking about going from 9-1 to 10-8. I'm trying to dispel a lot of myths here, but It feels to me like there might be a little more to matchmaking than just Form. For example I am 52-42 this year when my Form is -1. But a disproportionate number of those losses come as a part of streaks. This is my next project; I have all the data, I'm just working on the best way to glean good info from it.

       

    That's all I got. Any questions, requests, recommendations for me to be put in a mental institution, let's hear it. Hope you found this somewhat insightful, interesting, or even just a useful time killer while we suffer this interminable wait to get all of TOTY into packs. Good luck this Friday guys.

    submitted by /u/victor_foxtrot
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    My wife tried FIFA for the first time tonight. We played a co-op. Feel like Sir Alex when he first saw Cristiano.

    Posted: 24 Jan 2021 10:26 PM PST

    Simple League Upgrade Packs Research

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 02:43 PM PST

    Results of around 30ish prem packs (normal and premium)

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 03:58 PM PST

    New upgrade SBCs released

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 10:00 AM PST

    PSA - Upgrade Packs - Check the SBC twice!

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 12:02 PM PST

    Representing the lot who submitted 11 rares in the regular upgrade sbc and not the 'premium' one. Not once, but twice!

    Ouch there goes my TOTY

    Ideally just favourite the premium ones.

    submitted by /u/eka1eka
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    Possible Previous TOTY Players EA could bring back...

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 05:24 PM PST

    Daily reminder don’t buy FP

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 11:28 AM PST

    Just spent about $200 for those new 81+ packs. Didn't get a card better then an 85 lmao. Don't do it guys.

    submitted by /u/Fro1254
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    Week 4 - Silver Online Friendly has been Fixed

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 03:52 PM PST

    Just wanted to let folks know that the objective is no longer bugged if you still need it.

    submitted by /u/Sir_Mi
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    Completely useless tip: if you score with your keeper in survival nobody gets ejected

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 07:07 AM PST

    Not sure why anyone would ever need this information, but here you go

    submitted by /u/jakedobson
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    Hot take: players blame the game too much for their own mistakes.

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 03:31 AM PST

    Yes, the servers are shit, yes there is balance issues, but everyone suffers from these same issues! It evens out, you most likely didn't finish silver 1 because of EA, because there are people playing under the same material conditions as you and still doing better.

    It is ok to be critical of this game and want better, but so often this sub seeks to blame the game mechanics for things that they could so obviously improve on. If you feel like the game is getting you down, take a break.

    submitted by /u/BWN16
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    Please hurry up ea

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 07:42 PM PST

    It’s just getting stupid at this point...

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 03:48 PM PST

    I must say World Beaters friendly mode is really fun and enjoyable

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 04:23 PM PST

    As I said in the title, I think the World Beaters Friendly mode is really fun, it being full chem no matter what position or who plays. Definetly one of my favorites right now, since you can go constant pressure the whole game without the players getting tired, which makes the game very attacking and fun to play. Anybody else think the same?

    submitted by /u/Maake11
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    New upgrade SBCs (this time for all the leagues)

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 10:31 AM PST

    How often do you concede this exact goal?

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 09:19 AM PST

    It's been 3 years and I still have to close the phone app to send dup untradeables to the club.

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 06:51 PM PST

    Am I the only one who experiences this?

    If I pack a duplicate untradeable and then submit the untradeable from my club into an SBC, I can't send my packed duplicate into my club.

    I have to close the app and reopen or buy something off the market.

    WTF EA.

    submitted by /u/bigp16218
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    Premier league non rares are going MAD right now as people are buying the extra pieces to finish league SBC’s.

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 10:44 AM PST

    When playing a better opponent, I set small goals. This WL I made it to the smallest goal yet..

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 09:56 AM PST

    Instead of quitting, I'll change the game for myself. Score a goal, complete 5 passes, defend the next two attacks... Anything really to find a small victory in what will be a defeat at the end of the match.

    This WL I came up against an opponent while my ELO was +5 that was the best opponent I've ever played. Not only could I not keep control of the ball, but by the end of the first half, I hadn't even had a shot on goal.

    I kept making my goals smaller and smaller - maintain possession in their half for 5 passes, then 3, then it was just trying to attempt a shot in the box, then outside, then just attempt a shot.

    I was absolutely amazed at this players ability. By the end of the match I had 2 shots with one on goal and 30% possession with 60% passing... I wasn't even mad because the skill gap was so wide that my G2/G3 abilities were never going to match.

    I tried to send a message of awe and encouragement but they had their settings to private. So, if you're out there M*****84, that was incredible and I really hope you end up packing something from TOTY...

    submitted by /u/lukestauntaun
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    So apparently the old school FIFA 14 kick-off glitch is back huh

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 04:29 AM PST

    Double 83+ Midfielders Upgrade

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 11:31 AM PST

    Remember when the whole community called FUT Freeze the worst promo ever...

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 01:23 AM PST

    ...still I see SO many squads with these players. Personally I regularly use CDM Marquinhos, CB Bolland, RB Golovin, RB Alex Moreno and CDM Capa. I recently bought CB Gosens to be able to hybrid Serie A with Ligue 1. Time after time I find the FUT Freeze cards super usable to create squads, these cards slot in perfectly.

    Might be an unpopular opinion but I feel FUT Freeze is the best promo so far this FIFA

    submitted by /u/kEndo8444kk
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    Nick Pope height myth

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 03:57 PM PST

    Thanks to this subreddit/community!

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 11:46 AM PST

    Just wanted to say thanks to all the regular posters here.

    The FUT community is sometimes toxic (here's looking at you macarena dancing replay watchers!) but this subreddit has been an awesome distraction for myself over the past month or so of super lockdown.

    Love checking in at 6pm for the latest SBC news, player reviews etc. Helps add some structure to the days and is always a nice break from grinding SBCs.

    Its been a shit 10 months but we're getting there and a few games of fifa and some Reddit banter definitely help keep the mind busy.

    So cheers, keep up the good work and let's batter on through the last months of this shitness like Rashford batters through centre backs!

    Peace.

    submitted by /u/seals_go_arf
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    Kevin Keegan Icon Concept Card

    Posted: 25 Jan 2021 10:01 AM PST
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